Baccarat Betting Strategy
Posted : admin On 3/25/2022- Baccarat Betting Strategy System
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- Most casino betting systems work on a 'progression' framework: if you lose or win, your stake goes up or down according to the rules of that system. The flat betting system in baccarat works slightly.
- Baccarat players recognize the Golden Eagle as one of the best Chinese baccarat strategies available. This unique strategy involves rotating bets between both Player and Bank depending on the outcome.
- Don’t look for patterns. When first learning how to play baccarat, new players will often overlook this.
- Baccarat, also known as punto banco, is one of the oldest and most popular games in casinos all over the world. It is especially popular among high-rollers and Asian gamblers. In Macau, baccarat is extremely dominant. Although the game seems serious and elegant, it is really as simple as betting.
Let’s get one thing straight – there is not one single surefire Baccarat strategy guaranteeing you wins. Anyone who claims they have cracked the Baccarat code is either a Trump supporter who yells at kids to get off their lawn or a self-righteous and self-proclaimed “expert” lacking the bankroll to back up him boasting his uncanny skill and technique. And although there’s not really one foolproof strategy per se, considering how much based on the chance the game is, there are some rules you can follow to ensure a pleasant time at the Baccarat table.
How to Play Baccarat – The Rules In a Nutshell
First and foremost – learn the mechanics of the game. Make sure you know the rules, how the cards are dealt and what their value is. It can be boring learning all the intricacies like when the player stands and when the banker hits but if you’re betting your money, you need to have a complete understanding of what’s going on.
Despite the fancy suited high-rollers we’ve come to associate with Baccarat, it doesn’t take the intellectual prowess and deductive reasoning of a British Secret Service agent to ace it. In fact, this is probably the most straightforward game you can play at a casino. Despite all the prestige surrounding the game, it’s really nothing more than a coin toss, so once you’re familiar with the terms and bets, you’re all good to go. To prep you up for a night at a glitzy land-based casino or a game at an online live table, here’s a crash course on how to play Baccarat.
Baccarat is played at large kidney-shaped tables that can sit 12 players and two dealers, plus a caller. In front of every player, there are two fields – Player and Banker. Each player places their bet before the cards are dealt and chooses whether their wager goes to the Player hand or the Banker hand. There is also a third option – Tie if the Player and Banker’s hands have equal value. The version of Baccarat played at American casinos is called Punto Banco which stands for Player and Banker. After all players have placed their bets, the Player and the Banker are each dealt two cards. The hand that wins is the one that’s closer to a total of 9. So, if the Player hand is 8 and the Banker hand is a 3, the winning one is the Player and all punters at the table who have placed bets on the Player hand, win. If the hands are equal, it’s a loss for everyone who has bet on Player / Banker and a win for all that have bet on a Tie.
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The Good, the Bad and the Player – Baccarat Bets to Make and Avoid
The first step towards winning is to avoid the Tie bet. Not that we don’t like it or anything but if you’re in it to win it, then wagering your money on a bet with a 14-percent house edge is not exactly a surefire winning strategy. Next, you need to know the odds – although it seems pretty straightforward having only two options to bet – either Player or Banker, there are slightly different odds for the two as follows:
- Banker – 45.843%
- Player – 44.615%
- Tie – 9.543%
*There’s also a commission on the Banker bet so make sure you’re familiar with these before placing a wager.
The Banker Bet
With its higher odds, the Banker bet seems like the most reasonable choice when designing a Baccarat winning strategy. Experts will advise you to bet your money on it because it has been estimated that it will win more than 50% of the time – one of the reasons casinos add the 5% commission on it. Despite this being added, it’s still a preferred choice for many players – both newbies and seasoned pros who swear by it. Experts will also recommend that you keep betting on Banker until it loses as it has a better chance for winning streaks and that you wait for at least one bet after a Banker loss before switching to Player.
A good thing to always keep in mind is that hot/cold tables and winning/losing streaks are pure myths born by the gambler’s fallacy that in even odds bets after many consecutive outcomes of the same results, the opposite one is just bound to happen. There’s absolutely no mathematical or any other proof of such co-dependency so we advise that you don’t employ such practices.
| Outcome | Combinations | Probability | Banker Bet Return | Player Bet Return | Tie Bet 8 to 1 return | Tie Bet 9 to 1 return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Banker Wins | 2,2922,252,566,437,888 | 0.458597 | 0.435668 | -0.458597 | -0.458597 | -0.458597 |
| Player Wins | 2,230,518,282,592,256 | 0.446247 | -0.446247 | 0.446247 | -0.446247 | -0.446247 |
| Tie | 475,627,426,473,216 | 0.095156 | 0 | 0 | 0.761248 | 0.856404 |
| Totals | 4,998,398,275,503,360 | 1 | -0.010579 | -0.012351 | -0.143596 | -0.048440 |
*Baccarat Odds
The Player Bet
Although the Banker bet is typically assumed as the better option, it’s a bit different when you’re using a strategy. Considering the commission on the Banker bet, it will be less lucrative when you’re using progressions. Let’s say, you’re playing Martingale – you are doubling your bet after every loss. After four consecutive losses at a 10-unit wager, you’ve lost 150 units (10 + 20 + 40 + 80).
You bet on Banker again and this time you wager 160. Finally, you win and the total payout is 304 units. That’s the 160 stake plus the 160 win, minus the 5% commission. The total amount wagered was 310 (10 + 20 + 40 + 80 + 160) which means that even though you’ve won, you haven’t covered your losses and due to the negative progression and the bet commission, your net loss is 6 units. A similar streak of losses while betting the Player hand would have given the expected 1 unit of profit, that is 10. Despite its lower odds, it’s the better option when playing with systems.
The Tie Bet
Baccarat is known as the casino game with the lowest house edge, however, the Tie bet can definitely tarnish its reputation. The Banker is recommended for its low edge of 1.06%, the Player is also a good option with a house edge of 1.26% and then there’s the Tie bet – standing at the staggering 14.4% house edge, defying logic and critical thinking. Naturally, it’s not a good call to place your money on a bet that has less than 10% odds and the possibility of paying back only 14 units per very 100 units wagered. That’s why the most logical thing would be to avoid it and play as if it doesn’t exist. A tie is a push, so your wager will just wait for the next round. If you’re following a streak and you get a Tie, simply don’t count it and keep playing accordingly.
Practice Baccarat for Free
You can test this experts’ advice in our demo game and see for yourself whether betting successively on Banker yields the highest winning potential. Play for free Baccarat by Pragmatic Play and use its features to hone your betting strategies. The game follows standard baccarat rules and has payouts as follows:
- Player Win – 1:1 (Even Money)
- Banker Win – 0.95:1 (with 5% commission)
- Tie – 8:1 (in case of Tie, Banker Bet and Player Bet are Push)
Baccarat Betting Strategy System
Played with eight decks, this version keeps history of the last twenty results indicating B for Banker, P for Player, and T for Tie. You have also options to rebet or place different bets before each new deal. With a betting range of 1 – 100 and 500 free credits, the game will also allow you to test out some of the progressive betting systems described below.
Using Betting Systems in Baccarat – It’s Not Stupid if it Works
Some practices used in other table and card games can also be applied to Baccarat. Both simple strategies like the D’Alembert and more sophisticated ones like the Labouchere system can serve your purpose of beating the odds at Baccarat. Positive progression systems like the Parlay and Paroli or negative progressions are also applied by players. To find out how you can use popular betting systems like the Fibonacci progression or the 1-3-2-6 system, read more details about Baccarat betting systems on our dedicated page.
Positive Progressions
Using a positive progression system means that you increase your bet every time you win and reduce it after a loss. Positive progressions are considered to be less damaging to your bankroll than negative progression betting systems. They are supposed to help you maximize your winnings if you go on a lucky winning streak and keep your losses to a minimum if you end up having consecutive losses. In theory, they do make sense and it is possible to win more money if you get a series of winning outcomes and soften the blow to your wallet in case of several consecutive losses. Positive progressions do not influence your chances of winning or losing a bet and are generally no risk at all.
Negative Progression Systems
Negative progressions are just the opposite of positive progression systems and can actually be harmful to your bankroll. In essence, they postulate that you should increase your wager after every loss and reduce it after a winning bet. At first glance, they seem logical and it’s easy to see why some gamblers will be tempted to try them. The theory behind them is that when you increase your bet, eventually your win will be big enough to cover your losses.
A closer look at how they work will reveal all the problems about such betting practice. There’s a very real risk that you will eventually run out of money, especially if you’re doubling your bet. Besides, there’s the bet limit of the house you need to consider – even if you have enough money to keep betting, the cap of the bet amount will prevent you from placing a wager big enough to cover your losses. Unless you’re very experienced and know exactly what you’re doing, such systems can be a recipe for disaster.
Flat Betting Strategy
Unlike positive and negative progression systems where you have to alter the amount of your bet, a flat betting strategy for Baccarat means that you will be repeatedly placing the exact same wager in successive rounds of play, regardless of whether you lose or win. This approach is considered advantageous due to the lower risk in case of a losing streak. But how can you win more using a flat betting strategy? The best way to profit from the flat betting strategy is to determine correctly which hand will win, Banker or Player, with the accuracy higher than 50 percent. Using the flat betting strategy means that you will place the same amount of bet on every hand. While this is an effective way of minimizing the risk, it doesn’t guarantee big wins. It’s useful if you’re still getting used to the game and not very certain of the rules.
What are the benefits of using the flat betting system instead of the negative or positive progressions?
- Flat betting offers higher chances of actually making a profit.Since you don’t double or increase your bet in flat betting, there’s a smaller risk of overspending. Not adding more money to your wager reduces the risks of bigger losses and presents a better chance of making a profit.
- You can bet more. Flat betting gives you the option for more bets at a lesser value since you don’t double the wager neither after a win, nor after a loss, the way you would in progression systems. You can bet more money because you won’t make big losses due to doubled bets.
- You can use it if you’re not very well versed in the rules. Flat betting is suitable for beginners because of its simplicity and lower risk. You don’t need to make calculations and you can apply it even if you’re not familiar with the rules like drawing additional cards.
If you’re interested in utilizing a betting system, flat betting is the only way to do it without the risk of losing more money than you can afford. Experts advise against using negative progressions and are sceptical about positive progressions as well, so it’s not a good idea to chase after other strategies if you can gain an advantage over the game by using the flat betting system. It doesn’t guarantee a sure win but it is an effective way to increase your odds if you manage to predict the outcome of the round. Even if you don’t, you don’t risk losing a lot of money.
| Round | Win/Loss | Bet | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | win | $1 | + $1 |
| 2 | win | $1 | + $2 |
| 3 | win | $1 | + $3 |
| 4 | loss | $1 | + $2 |
| 5 | loss | $1 | + $1 |
| 6 | loss | $1 | 0 |
*Flat betting example
Card Counting in Baccarat – Close to Impossible but Still an Option
Card counting has gained enormous popularity at Blackjack ever since Edward E. Thorp published his 1964 bestseller Beat the Dealer. It’s a method that has proven to be lucrative for players who have used it successfully to beat blackjack. But of course, it’s not just the players that caught on to it – the casinos are well aware of it and now blackjack tables are the most closely watched ones, with suspected card counters often being barred from betting or asked to leave the premises. But gamblers won’t let their practice go to waste so they turn to the next best thing where they can continue to hone their skills – Baccarat.
Yes, Baccarat card counting is a thing and might as well be the reason why Baccarat is likely to replace blackjack as the most popular casino game. Although theoretically, you can beat Baccarat by counting cards, the edge you get will be so small that it might not actually be worth your time, considering how much more complicated than card counting at a game of 21 it is. Still, if you have the time and dedication to try and learn it, we have the complete Baccarat card counting guide to help you.
Money Management Is Crucial
If you decide to use progression systems, you need to exercise strict control over your budget. Any system that requires you to increase or double your bet is a pitfall that you’ll have hard time getting out of. Whatever systems you’re using to play online baccarat at the best online casinos, be it the Paroli, Martingale, Parlay or any other, never spend more money than you set out to. Baccarat is a chance-based game, you can never predict with certainty whether you will have a winning or a losing streak. Don’t go chasing your losses and remember the golden rule – quit while you’re ahead.
- MasterCard
- Visa
- Skrill
- PayPal
- ApplePay
- PaySafeCard
- Neteller
- Entropay
- Fast Bank Transfer
- Bank Wire
- Cheque
Plan your budget – decide on your wager and put a limit on the total sum you’re willing to bet. If you decide to make your wager $10, allow yourself a $200 bankroll and if you lose it all, simply walk away. Take time until the next session. It’s nice to leave the table a winner, but gambling is inherently unpredictable. The worst strategy would be to start chasing your losses or fall for some of the erroneous motivators behind gambling like:
- near misses: being very close to winning but not actually winning and continuing to wager with the assumption that the next round is due to be a win.
- the illusion of control: being able to roll the dice, spin the ball at roulette, or squeeze the cards in baccarat will give you a false sensation of exercising control over a game purely based on luck.
- the gambler’s fallacy: the wrong and unsupported conviction that after a series of the same result or a losing streak, the next one will be lucky and with the winnings, you’ll be able to even out.
Having Fun and Staying in Control Is the Best Strategy
All of these are misconceptions that are actually the first signs of compulsive gambling. We have an innate aversion to loss but we have to accept that in a tight game like baccarat, the chance is the deciding factor. Stop playing when you’ve spent your budget, regardless of whether you’re winning or losing and give yourself some time before you go back to playing. If you’re winning, split your win in half and use only that to keep playing. Even if you lose it, you still walk away with a profit. Remember that gambling is an entertaining activity – enjoy the fun and social aspects of it and stay in control of your bankroll. Now, that’s a strategy that always works.
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*T&Cs apply
Baccarat is a card game played between 2 hands, the “player” and the “banker” at casinos worldwide. Each baccarat coup (round of play) has 3 possible outcomes: “player” (player has the higher score), “banker”, and “tie”. There are 3 popular variants of the game. These include punto banco (or “North American baccarat”), baccarat chemin de fer (or “chemmy”), and baccarat banque (or à deux tableaux).
In punto banco, each player’s moves are forced by the cards the player is dealt. In baccarat chemin de fer and baccarat banque, by contrast, both players can make choices. The winning odds are in favour of the bank, with a house edge (which is in place at any casino game to help ensure the casino makes their money) no lower than around 1 percent.
The origins of the game are controversial. Some sources claim that it dates to the 19th century. Other sources claim that the game was introduced into France from Italy at the end of the 15th century by soldiers returning from the Franco-Italian Warduring the reign of Charles VIII.
This isn’t a history lesson about baccarat. Instead, we are going to go into some of the key betting and playing strategies that player’s will use during the game.
Card Counting
Card counting is a playing strategy that was made famous on the blackjack tables. It has been so popularized by movies, books, and TV shows that pretty much everyone is familiar with the basic idea. You may be thinking that this is a system for the mathematically gifted. Actually, it’s quite the opposite.
Card counting can be done by just about anyone. The only thing it requires is some simple addition and subtraction. The aim of this strategy is to determine who will receive a more advantageous hand in each round of the game.
This is indeed something that’s applicable to blackjack, but can you count cards in baccarat and just about every other poker game out there. Seeing as baccarat loosely follows the same gameplay structure as blackjack, where 2 hands are drawn and the highest 1 wins, it’s possible to use card counting when playing baccarat.
There are a number of prerequisites that must be met in order to get the most out of your card counting experience.
First, you absolutely must be playing at a table that uses a 6 deck shoe or an 8 deck shoe. No more, no less. The shoe must be fresh when you start counting or the whole system will fall apart.
The shoe is the device that’s used at just about every poker table. It holds the cards that are dealt out by the dealer. The shoe changes roughly every 30 minutes in online live baccarat, so if you join before this happens, just be patient and sit it out for a little while. The worst thing that could happen is you have to wait half an hour to try it out.
Ideally, you should play at a table where the shoe is used the whole way through. Often this only happens in land-based casinos; however, you can still apply this strategy online. Once you’ve met all 3, or at least the first 2 of these conditions, you’ll be ready to learn the ins and outs of card counting for baccarat.
Martingale
1 of the oldest betting systems, the Martingale is a negative progression system used in chance-based games like roulette, baccarat, and craps.
It basically assumes that players should bet the same amount again after they win and double their bet after they lose.
Best Baccarat Betting Strategy
For Example:You bet $5 and you win, then you bet $5 again. However, if you lose, you need to bet $10. You lose again, you bet $20. The idea is that when you eventually win, and actually every time you win, you will be up $5 despite your previous losses.
Here’s another example that might help you understand better. You’ve bet $5, but after 4 losses, you win.
You’ve won $160, but you’ve already lost $155 from your previous bets (the initial $5 + $10 + $20 + $40 + $80 from your last winning bet).
So, in theory, it sounds like you can never lose and that you’ll always be up your initial bet. In reality, things are different. Imagine betting $5 and having a streak of thirteen consecutive losses.
Then your next bet would have to be $40,960, assuming that you have that kind of money.
If you lose again, which is unfortunately more likely than a lot of new and ambitious players think, you’ll have to bet up $81,920, and that’s above the limit of most houses.
This leads me to the main point—when you play Martingale, in the long run you will either run out of money or the casino betting limits will cut your strategy short, even if you’re willing to place crazy high bets.
Systems like Martingale are most typically only going to work for short or quick gambling sessions and fewer betting rounds.
Although baccarat with its low house edge seems like a good option to try the system, it’s not recommended that you try it while playing online.
Online rounds go much faster than playing in an actual physical casino, and the chances of getting your bets back using Martingale are larger if you spend less time playing.
The max recommended playing time if you are going to give the Martingale betting method a shot is 1 hour. Before you come up to that hour playing time, you could play 120 rounds of Baccarat.
Paroli
Paroli is a classic, popular, tried-and-tested positive-betting system whose goal is to increase the chances of growing your profits by taking advantage of winning streaks.
The Paroli Betting System is over 100 years old, first being used at 1 of the casinos in the gambling mecca of Monte Carlo. It has since become one of the most popular betting strategies in the world.
The system gets its name from the Latin term ‘par’, meaning “one that is equal”. Victor Bethell, the man who came up with this betting system, stressed in his book ‘Monte Carlo Anecdotes’ in 1910 that the Paroli Betting System is a direct progression wagering system that is basically the opposite of the Martingale system.
As a matter of fact, the betting system is even often referred to as the Reverse Martingale system.
In essence, Paroli seems to combine some of the elements of the Martingale system and Anti-Martingale system into one. When it all comes down to it, its 2 main purposes are to generate small wins consistently and to avoid the risk of huge losses.
Paroli is perceived by its players as a less risky betting system. This is because of the fact that large bets are made using money won from the casino rather than a sacrificial bet from the player’s own personal bankroll.
Baccarat Betting Tips
In comparison, followers of the Martingale System use up their own money in order to place large bets after losses.
Labouchere
The Labouchere is not for you if you’re looking for a simple and/or progressive betting system.
It’s one of the more complicated systems and takes some getting used to. I would not recommend it if you’re new to baccarat. Despite its level of difficulty when implementing this system, it can be one of the most advantageous and popular betting systems among players.
Progressive Baccarat Betting Strategy
Labouchere, Also Known As…This system is also known by a few other names, including the Split Martingale, the Cancellation System, and American Progression. It’s a negative progression system like the Martingale, so it involves increasing stakes after losing bets.
The main idea is that you should be able to recover the losses from losing wagers with a smaller number of wins. This similar to the Martingale system, another negative progression system, but the Labouchere does not attempt to recover all previous losses with one single win.
Instead, it tries to recover losses with multiple wins. One of the positive aspects of this system is its flexibility. Because the player is able to adjust the initial betting sequence, the player can adjust their levels of risk and reward a little.
This system, as well as the others, are all very popular—you could literally read thousands of books about betting systems. I definitely would recommend practicing and doing more research before you go and start putting money on the table. Use a betting system whenever you play, and you’re going to be more successful than if you just played blind.
Conclusion
Just like any other strategy, these systems take some practice to master. Sure, you might be able to figure them out right away, but it’s different when your money is on the table and other players are involved. I suggest spending a lot of time playing online first—either for free or for money—to get a feel for how the systems work and to practice. Nothing looks worse than going to a table in a physical casino and trying these systems out, only to lose money and have it be really obvious what you’re doing.
Are there any betting systems I left out? Let me know in the comments.