Set Betting Tennis
Posted : admin On 4/14/2022The best advice is to look at the best odds for each individual tennis bet. You can do this easily through OLBG by adding your tennis bets to a betslip right here on the site or via the OLBG app. Then once all your tennis bets have been added, you can go to your betslip and see the odds from the top tennis. Tennis betting kicks the excitement up several levels and every point, set or match in a tournament means much more with money on the line. For the tennis hobbyist, it’s a great way to get closer to the.
The unique scoring system in tennis makes it a great sport for betting, both pre-game and in-play. While the winner of a match must win more sets than their opponent, they may lose more games and/or points. The entire WTA calendar, and the majority of ATP matches are contested over Best of three sets. This article examines odds and statistics for the first and second sets of best of three set matches from 2010 to August 2018.
Since 2010 there have been over 18,000 ATP, and over 20,000 WTA three set matches. We analysed the 50 top ranked ATP and WTA players to determine who is effective at closing out matches in straight sets, and who is good at reversing momentum to win the second set after losing the first.
Set One
In a previous article I showed that Pinnacle’s match winner closing prices are highly efficient, meaning they’re a great indication of true probabilities. The winner of the first set is also a widely available and liquid betting option, and so the relationship between winning the first set and winning the match is an important one to understand. The charts below plot the relationship for different match winner implied probability ranges.
Set one win percentages are higher than match win percentages at lower implied probabilities (and vice versa) is what we would expect given there will be more variance in the outcome of the shorter set. The difference between match and set one win percentages is, on average, 1.5 percentage points greater in ATP matches across the implied probability deciles.
A survey of Pinnacle’s set one markets suggests that this discrepancy may not always be accounted for in their odds. Match winner to set one winner correlations appear to be similar for both ATP and WTA matches. This may mean backing underdogs to win set one is more profitable in ATP matches compared to the WTA.
The charts below plot players’ average implied probability to win the match against their set one win percentages. Implied probabilities are not adjusted for the margin. The orange lines show the average set one win percentages across the ATP and WTA.
Players significantly above (below) the orange line win the first set more (less) than their odds may suggest, on average. For example, Kyrgios has an average match winner implied probability of 65% (average odds of 1.55) and wins the first set in 67% of matches, above the ATP average of 59% for that implied probability. This means he has likely been a good betting prospect to win Set one over the course of his career.
Players that win set one more often than average, relative to their odds, include (ATP) Federer, Zverev A, Kyrgios, Khachanov, Fucscovics, Gojowczyk, (WTA) Konta, Mertens, Buzarnescu and Sabalenka. Players that win Set one less often than their odds imply include (ATP) Cecchinato, Marterer, Tiafoe, Goffin, (WTA) Bencic, Krunic, Martic and Sasnovich.
Set Two
The completion of the first set provides an opportunity for in-play bettors to identify possible mispricings for set two and the match. The charts below add set two win percentages, in green, to those above.
In ATP matches, players with an implied probability less than 10% (odds greater than 10.0) perform better in set two than set one. This is somewhat counterintuitive, as we may expect the effort of a big underdog to decrease as the match progresses.
This drop off actually appears to happen for underdogs with match implied probabilities between 20% and 40% (odds between 2.5 and 5.0). In this range, set two win percentages are around two percentage points lower than set one. In WTA matches, performance in set one and set two is similar across all odds ranges.
We can expect some correlation within matches for set one and set two results. Below I have graphed set two win percentages conditional on the result of set one. The orange lines are the average set two win percentages at different implied probabilities/ odds. The green lines are the set two win percentages conditional on winning set one and the blue lines are the set two win percentages conditional on losing set one.
As we might expect, the win percentages for set two are higher when a player has won the first set, demonstrating the effect on momentum in tennis. The gap between green and blue lines for WTA matches is on average six percentage points larger, suggesting momentum is greater in WTA matches.
Another interesting finding is that when a big ATP underdog (odds greater than 10.0) loses the first set, they still win the second set in 12.2% of matches. This is actually higher than how often they win the first set (12.0%). Betting on big ATP underdogs to win set two, may therefore be more profitable than backing them to win set one. This is especially true when they have lost the first set, as odds on the favourite would likely have shortened for set two in-play. So which players may provide good betting prospects for set two at the completion of the set one?
Frontrunners
The next charts plot players’ set two win percentage when they have won the first set. Players significantly above the average orange line are good frontrunners, winning in straight sets (after winning the first set) more often than average, at their respective odds.
Such players include (ATP) Tsitsipas, Chardy, Gasquet, Del Potro, Bautista Agut and Coric. In WTA matches, the majority of the current top 50 are good frontrunners. Those with the best front-running record relative to their odds are Osaka, Sasnovich, Krunic, Sakkari and Strycova.
Players below the average orange line such as (ATP) Shapovalov, Haase, Tiafoe and Rublev have been poor at finishing their matches in straight sets after winning the first set. For example, when Shapovalov (who has an average match winner implied probability of 48%) wins the first set, he only wins the second set in 48% of matches. ATP averages are significantly higher, around 59%. In the WTA, Putintseva is the worst front-runner in the top 50, losing the second set in 44% of matches when she has won the firstset.
Coming from Behind
Reversing the momentum in a match when trailing is a valuable trait for a tennis player. In the charts below I plot players’ set two win percentage when they have lost the first set. Which players are good at winning the second set from a set down?
Relative to their odds, players above the orange line have performed better than average in set two after losing the first set. They include (ATP) Dzumhur, Isner, Kyrgios, Tsitsipas, Edmund, Zverev A, (WTA) Sasnovich, Sabalenka, Sakkari, Muguruza and Williams V. Players sitting below the line have been relatively poor at coming back from a set down.
Players such as (ATP) Gojowczyk, Rublev, Chung, Carreno Busta, Del Potro, Nadal, (WTA) Putintseva, Zhang, Krunic, Osaka and Radwanska appear to be the worst at mounting a comeback from a set down to force a third set.
Set betting in tennis
While the analysis in this article doesn’t account for a number of factors such as weather, court conditions, motivation and injuries that will have an impact on odds throughout a match, an understanding of market and player statistics is valuable knowledge when considering a wager before or during a tennis match.
Pinnacle’s high limits and policy of welcoming winners ensures that a profitable betting angle remains exploitable to any bettor for as long as it exists.
Tennis is one of the most loved sports in the world. The reason for this is quite unknown, but hey, all for the love of the game.
Australians have always loved tennis and with tennis betting, in the picture, the thrill of the game just become better.
Real money has this thing of adding a little more spice to every sport. And tennis was no exception.
Best AU Tennis Betting Sites
Some of the best sports betting sites for tennis are:
- PlayUp
- Unibet
- Betfair
- bet365
How to Bet on Tennis Online
There are several ways that Australians can wager on tennis online. Each of these ways has its own different set of rules but are equally rewarding.
Match Betting
Match betting is the simplest form of tennis betting just like there are some very simple forms of online casino gaming. This is because all you have to do is to bet on the outcome of the match. For most betting sites, the basis of the bet is AU 100.
The line allows you to bet on the favourite that is marked with a minus sign. This means that you will have to risk more than you will be able to win. And the underdog is marked with a plus sign, this means that your potential returns will be higher than your initial bet.
Tennis Set Betting
This means that all you want to predict the exact outcome of the bet. This can be very risky at the same time very rewarding. Risky in the sense that, if you wrong, you lose the whole bet, but in the chance that you are right. Well, that money in the bag for you to enjoy.
Parley Betting/ Total Games
In parley betting, you can combine multiple sets into a single wager. The risk in taking this bet is that if one set is wrong, you lose all your money. So in layman terms, it’s all or nothing.
Future Betting
Just as the name says it, future. Bets of this kind are set in motion long before the actual game is played. They do offer better odds and most sites set them up about a week before the match is played.
Proposition Betting
This basically takes into consideration everything else that hasn’t been mentioned above. Take, for instance, predicting whether there is a tie-break or not.
Outright Bets
This is a bet that is usually placed in tournaments. You bet on who will win the tournament.
Live Tennis Betting
Tennis is a very fast game, such that one blow can literally change the whole outcome of the game, this is one of the main reasons why it is a great game for live betting. Therefore, even if you are new at tennis betting it is not something that you need to get worked out over. The bests are very simple and you can always watch it first before you start placing any bets.
However, in Australia, because of a number of regulations live tennis betting is not allowed by some sportsbooks. Therefore it is not all sports betting sites that will allow you to place live tennis bets. But for the sites that do allow you to place live tennis bets, you will find that the process is both fun as well as exciting.
Live Tennis Streaming
With every game that is being played, you want to be to stream it live because it is no fun when you watch the match after it has been played. That being other than the television that can get a little crowded from time to time, the best site that you can use for live streaming tennis is bet365. They are literally the best at what they do.
What to Consider when Betting on Tennis
Before you place a bet in tennis there are a number of factors that you have to consider:
- Injuries: Is/ has the player that you are betting on been injured recently or is their opponent injured.
- Motivation: Some players may be good on grass, while others may be good on turf
- Fitness: Is the player physically fit and healthy.
- Weather: Some players have a history of performing better in certain weather conditions.
- Head-to-head bets: Betting on who will win or lose
- Left-handers: Left-handers are known to have better odds in winning tennis
- In-Play Betting: These are bets that can be placed after the game has started
Conclusion
At the end of the, when it comes to betting, the choice is all yours to make. That is if you want to engage in sports betting or not. However, we can assure you that you will never go bored with tennis betting, as there are several tournaments that you can place the bets in. With that, enjoy the best tennis betting at top Australian tennis betting sites and win your fair share of real money today.
