World Cup 2018 Sleepers

FiveThirtyEight is examining each of the eight groups in the 2018 World Cup, which begins Thursday in Russia. Read about Group A,Group B,Group C, Group D, Group E, Group F and Group G.

1. World Cup 2018 Sleepers 2020
2. World Cup 2018 Sleepers Game
3. World Cup 2018 Sleepers Schedule

Group H is potentially the most interesting in Russia this summer. While the average group difference in FiveThirtyEight’s Soccer Power Index score between the best and worst teams is about 25, Senegal’s SPI rating of 66.0 is only 14.5 points lower than Colombia’s 80.5. Poland (73.3) and Japan (71.4) are rated very similarly in the middle of the group. On top of this, the teams are filled with exciting attacking players from Europe’s strongest leagues: Poland’s Robert Lewandowski (Bayern Munich), Colombia’s James Rodríguez (Bayern Munich), Japan’s Shinji Kagawa (Borussia Dortmund) and Senegal’s Sadio Mané (Liverpool) will all be battling to make an impression on the world’s biggest stage.

Paper tiger or legit contender?

Also perfect in six trips to Bay Hill with a personal-best T26 in his last in 2018. Still has eight starts remaining on his Major Medical Extension to earn 138.042 FedExCup points and retain status. Six sleeper teams that could challenge for Women’s World Cup. The FIFA Women’s World Cup is underway in France, and if you ask most experts, there are only a. 4 Sleepers to Bet on to Win the World Cup. By Vik Chokshi Jun 13, 2018, 8:20 PM EDT.

The FIFA World Cup field is set and the eight groups are finally known.Now comes the fun part: Dissecting each group and figuring out the path to the trophy. Friday, 20 Mar 2020. The 2018 FIFA World Cup Russia™ thrilled from beginning to end. The 21st edition of the world finals also produced countless moments that will endure in the collective.

After missing three straight World Cups, Colombia made a big impression in the 2014 World Cup — even without Radamel Falcao, who was unable to recover from injury in time to play. Four years later, Los Cafeteros’ talismanic striker is back, but he is no longer the star of the team: After finishing as the top scorer with six goals in Rio, Rodríguez has become the focal point of an exciting Colombian attack, which boasts a 69 percent chance of making it to the knockout stage.

José Pékerman’s squad likes to attack directly in open play — in 41 matches tracked by data firm Opta Sports since the 2014 World Cup, Colombia reached the opposition via playing a string of 10 or more successful passes only 75 times, just less than twice a game. Instead, the side relies more on attacks in which at least 50 percent of the movement is toward the opposition goal, with a ratio of these “direct” to “slow” attacks of 4.2-to-1.8. Defensively, they operate a medium block, regaining the ball in the middle area of the pitch 23.3 times per game — more than any other team in South American qualifying.

World Cup 2018 Sleepers 2020

Poland, marginally the second favorite in Group H with a 55 percent chance of finishing first or second, is even more reliant on its star player, Lewandowski.Lewandowski and Rodríguez were teammates this season during Rodríguez’s loan from Real Madrid.

'>¹ In qualifying, the towering striker was Poland’s top shot taker and goal scorer, and he also created the most Opta-defined “big chances” for his teammates. With 16 goals, he scored more than any other player in European qualifying, either scoring or assisting on 61 percent of Poland’s goals.

Underdog or also-ran?

Japan, with a 43 percent chance of getting through the group, is something of an unknown given that it changed manager in April, with Akira Nishino taking charge. The side’s two main attackers, Keisuke Honda and Shinji Kagawa, have a wealth of experience representing their country on the international stage, but they have been somewhat ineffective over the past few years, both being dropped by previous managers. With an average age of 28.6, the squad is severely lacking in young talent.

Skillful wingers Keita Baldé and Mané offer Senegal’s main threat in attack, while the towering defensive presence of Kalidou Koulibaly makes the spine of the team seem stronger than its 33 percent chance of progression may suggest. Given the relative equality of the group, a strong performance from Senegal in its opener against Poland could dramatically change expectations.

Player to watch

In 2014, James Rodríguez was a relative unknown who went on to become the archetype of a World Cup breakout. But after a disappointing move to Real Madrid culminated in a loan to Bayern Munich this year, the left-footed magician returns to the international stage with a point to prove.

Rodríguez is coming off the back of a redemptive season in which he was one of the best creators in Germany and played a similarly dominant attacking role: He completed more passes per 90 minutes than any attacker in the Bundesliga to have played more than 25 percent of available minutes. He was also tied for fifth in expected assists per 90 minutes in open play, and he assisted the second most shots per 90 from set pieces.

Player	Team	Expected Assists per 90
Thomas Muller	Bayern Munich	0.43
Karim Bellarabi	Bayer Leverkusen	0.35
Jadon Sancho	Borussia Dortmund	0.33
Mahmoud Dahoud	Borussia Dortmund	0.32
James Rodríguez	Bayern Munich	0.30
Leon Bailey	Bayer Leverkusen	0.30
Kingsley Coman	Bayern Munich	0.29
Mario Gotze	Borussia Dortmund	0.29
Franck Ribery	Bayern Munich	0.29
Fin Bartels	Werder Bremen	0.27

In qualifying, Rodríguez scored and assisted on more goals than any of his teammates, while also having the most shots and touches of the ball. While he may not have become a Galactico in Madrid, he is indisputably his country’s most important player.

Check out our latest World Cup predictions.

When the 2018 World Cup begins play today, it’ll kick off what could be a very good month for the usual suspects of international soccer. Our World Cup probability model, which launched on Wednesday (read more about it here), gives Brazil — the most successful team in World Cup history — the best chance of winning the tournament, at 19 percent. Spain (the winner two World Cups agoNever mind the whole firing-the-coach-on-the-eve-of-the-Cup thing.

'>

World Cup 2018 Sleepers Game

¹) and Germany (the defending champ) aren’t very far behind. And don’t forget about the classic contenders France and Argentina, who are also in our model’s top seven.

Only eight countries have ever lifted the Cup, so it’s not surprising that we are predicting good things for the world’s perennial soccer powerhouses. (Well, most of them. Sorry you couldn’t make the appointment, Italy and the Netherlands.) But this World Cup could still have its share of surprises, too. Here are the teams our model has as the favorites:

It’s not all historic honchos that have risen to the top of our model. Group G standout Belgium, which has enjoyed a meteoric rise in the worldwide rankings over the past decade, has a 27 percent chance of making the semifinals for just the second time in team history (and the first since 1986). This could very well be the year for fellow Group G side England — which fancies itself a blue bloodIn fairness, it did basically invent modern soccer.

'>

World Cup 2018 Sleepers Schedule

² but won its sole World Cup more than 50 years ago — to finally end its drought.

Over in Group B, Portugal has a good chance to avenge the disappointment of 2014 and advance deep into the tournament — provided it can stave off Morocco (and, as always, that Cristiano Ronaldo can carry over his club-team form to the global stage). In Group D, the veteran Croatians are not only a good pick to advance to the knockout stage but maybe even to make some noise once there. And as the front-runners in Group H, James Rodríguez and Colombia may be poised to advance past the quarterfinals for the very first time in national history.

Further down the list, our model sees a few dark-horse candidates to keep tabs on. If healthy, Mohamed Salah and Egypt have a much better knockout-stage probability than their Soccer Power Index would imply, because they were fortunate to draw the historic cupcake that is Group A. (Speaking of which: Uruguay — a two-time World Cup winner, so they might not quite fit the dark-horse image — and the host country, Russia, also have great odds of getting to the round of 16 out of the same group.) In Group H, meanwhile, Poland boasts essentially a coin flip’s chance to advance to the knockouts — which would be a first since 1986 — as does Denmark in Group C, Switzerland in Group E and Sweden in Group F.

To get there, though, all of these hopeful sides must win (or at least draw) a series of harrowing matchups within their respective groups. Thanks to our model, we can identify the matches that will likely swing the tournament’s odds the most, much like we did for college football’s most crucial games last fall. And perhaps surprisingly, no group-stage match will shape the World Cup more than Morocco’s duel with Spain on June 25.

Here are the tournament’s most important group-stage matches:

Swing if …
Affected team	Spain wins	Morocco wins	Draw
Spain	+3	-11	-4
Brazil	±<1	+2	±<1
Germany, England	±<1	+1	+1
Morocco, Argentina, France, Uruguay, Belgium, Croatia, Portugal	±<1	+1	±<1

Because Hakim Ziyech and the talented Moroccans were cruelly slotted into one of the tournament’s deadliest groups (Group B), we give them only a 28 percent chance of making the round of 16. But Morocco is strong enough to potentially play spoiler to the group’s favorites — Spain and Portugal — which also means that if Morocco wins or draws in the group stage, it could have ripple effects for teams across the tournament.

Aside from the few group-stage clashes between titans, such as Spain-Portugal or England-Belgium, there’s a common recipe for the crucial matches listed above: a talented underdog that can’t be overlooked by its contending opponent and that has the potential to break the knockout bracket before it’s even set. But don’t just take my word for it — in our interactive, you can actually tinker with the effect of a given team finishing in a given slot and see how it changes the overall odds.

So with all that said, all that’s left is to enjoy the action on the pitch. Check our model for the latest odds and live, in-game match probabilities, and we’ll be with you throughout the tournament with updates and analysis.